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Top EV Predictions Impacting Adoption in 2023

With the price of gas fluctuating dramatically in the past 12 months and the climate crisis inching toward a tipping point no one wants it to reach, the EV (electric vehicle) market has reached an important moment in time. It’s also on the verge of some huge growth. According to MarketsandMarkets, the global EV market will grow from 8,151 thousand units in 2022 to 39,208 thousand units by 2030, representing a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 21.7%. J.D. Power says EV sales in the U.S. rose by two-thirds in 2022, and research from McKinsey suggests EVs will gain a lot of ground in the luxury sector, making up 50-60% of this market by 2030.

But what is in store for this year in particular? EV futurist Lars Thomsen has made five predictions for EVs and factors that will impact EV adoption. Thomsen represents Juice Americas, a producer of EV charging solutions. He anticipates EVs will continue to become more affordable as options flood the U.S. and European markets. Thomsen predicts by the end of the year EV sales will increase by 25%. Beyond that, he believes growth will be twice as high. Thomsen also sees a trend toward more economical energy. Though electricity prices are currently up, he foresees an overall downward trend thanks to renewable energies and smarter, more efficient management of the energy grid. This trend will further encourage EV sales.

Thomsen also predicts a shift in the global competitive landscape. Specifically, he suggests China will go from being a mostly importing country to a mostly exporting country for cars, and it could gain up to 20% marketshare by 2027. Thomsen says in the realms of batteries, electronics, and autonomous driving, China appears to be not only ahead but also faster than OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) in Europe and the U.S.

A PwC analysis of the market for EV charging infrastructure suggests the number of charge points in the U.S. will grow to about 35 million in 2030, and the market for EV supply equipment could reach $100 billion by 2040. Juice Americas’ Thomsen also makes a prediction about charging and its role in EV adoption in 2023 and beyond. He says factors like improved battery longevity, advancements in the charging infrastructure, and more charging options are making it easier to own and drive an EV in the U.S., and this will go a long way in terms of boosting adoption in the coming years.

Finally, Thomsen predicts that in general, EVs will become more practical for the average U.S. driver thanks to “efficiency innovations” like an increasing range, an improvement in charging performance, and more charge points. The diversification of the selection and price points will also make EVs more practical than ever, with options ranging from large, luxury EVs to compact, economy EVs—and electric trucks too.

Policy will also play an important role in how the EV sector shakes out in 2023 and throughout the rest of the decade. In January, the U.S. DoE (Dept. of Energy) released the U.S. National Blueprint for Transportation Decarbonization—a first-of-its-kind strategy for federal leadership and partnerships to decarbonize the U.S. transportation sector. The blueprint encourages coordination, suggests immediate strategies and long-term plans for transportation decarbonization, and announces upcoming Detailed Action Plans that will help the sector meet its goals, such as turning the tide on transportation GHGs (greenhouse gasses), scaling up the deployment of clean solutions, and making the transition to sustainability.

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